Issue IV

Coffee king, Howard Schultz recently announced that he is “seriously” considering a run for president in 2020. The Starbucks CEO was expected to announce his candidacy, but his proposed bid as an independent, rather than a democrat, caught many by surprise.

“I will run as a centrist independent outside of the two party system.”

– Howard Schultz

Gallup reported 42% of Americans identified as independent in 2017, compared to 27% Republican and 29% Democrat. At a time in which the polarity of the two major parties seems stronger than ever, could an independent candidate have a legitimate shot at the U.S. presidency?

Liberals reacted to Schultz’s news with a collective eye roll – if the former Democrat were to make a serious bid in 2020, it would likely weaken the chances for a Democratic nominee to defeat incumbent President Trump. 60 Minutes’ Steve Kroft asked Schultz about this notion directly, but he skated around the question with veteran-political speak:

Kroft: “Do you worry that you will siphon votes away from the Democrats and thereby ensure that President Trump has a second term?”

Schultz: “I want to see the American people win. Bring me your ideas and I will be an independent person who will embrace those ideas because I am not, in any way, in bed with a major party.”

Schultz’s talk of running as an independent in 2020 could be simple posturing, or it could be an effort to create buzz as he embarks on a conveniently-timed book tour, or both. If Schultz is serious about “seriously” considering a bid, he’ll be facing an enormous, probably insurmountable, challenge as an independent candidate.

“When you run as an independent, you don’t have that natural base. Sure, there are a lot of people who call themselves independents but they aren’t united around a single set of principles or policies.”


– Chris Cillizza, CNN

“Primary elections historically have very low turnout rates, meaning that in many cases the most strident candidate — left and right — succeeds by appealing to each party’s activist base.”


– Reed Galen, Serve America Movement

Basically, the people who typically vote in primaries are people who are already hardened Democrats and republicans. The malleable middle doesn’t get involved until the major election, and at that point, it’s already too late for an independent candidate.

Even if Schultz is able to inspire a united independent base during primary season, the U.S. political system is littered with obstacles for independent candidates at both the state and federal levels.

For example, in Arizona, major party candidates are required to collect 6,000 valid signatures in order to appear on a primary ballot; an independent candidate is required to have 37,000 signatures.

In 2014, Congress adjusted campaign finance laws to heavily favor Democrats and Republicans over third-party candidates:

“Based on a little-known rider to the 2014 reconciliation bill, Democratic and Republican presidential nominees can now receive $834,000 per person, per year, through their parties for use in the campaigns. But unaffiliated candidates can collect only $2,700 each.”


– Peter Ackerman, Level the Playing Field

Additionally, the Commission on Presidential Debates has come under fire for muffling the voice of non-traditional candidates in recent years. The CPD was founded in 1987 to “provide the best possible information to viewers and listeners,” But, the Committee has of excluded third-party candidates from presidential debates in all but one election season since its inception. (And that singular inclusive instance came as a result of Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush demanding Independent Ross Perot’s involvement in the 1992 debates.)

“The true mission of the CPD is to deny independents and third-party candidates a national platform for their views and to their candidacies to be put before the American electorate.”


– Patrick Caddell, The Hill

“It is a fraud on the American voter.”

– League of Women Voters

“It mocks self-government to permit a private organization, created by the two major parties and funded by their corporate friends, to manipulate presidential debates to fortify their duopoly.”


– Gary Johnson, former presidential candidate

“The [CPD] is about as far from nonpartisan as you can get. It’s totally bipartisan. It’s a creation of the Democratic and Republican parties designed to solidify their dominance over the public.


– Sam Husseini, TruthDig

Let’s say an independent candidate was able to hurdle over the lines of red tape and make it into the White House. Effective governance would be very difficult.

“It would be a disaster. He has to work with Congress. Each decision would require a fight with Congress and a cobbled-together coalition to pass the president’s priorities. Without a party in his corner, the president would be in a constant struggle to perform even the most basic tasks of governing.”


– Seth Masket, L.A. Times

So, while it’s understandable that the disillusioned American voter may find lines like this refreshing:

“I don’t care if you’re a Democrat, Independent, Libertarian, Republican,” he said. “Bring me your ideas. And I will be an independent person, who will embrace those ideas. Because I am not, in any way, in bed with a party.”


– Howard Schultz

An independent American president is a pipe dream.